On the Minds of Investors

Will tensions between the U.S. and China keep rising?

It has become a near daily occurrence to awaken to headlines stating that “tensions between the U.S. and China are rising”. Indeed, tensions between the two countries have risen this year, a less positive example of a pre-pandemic trend that has gotten further amplified in the COVID-19 world.

How should current conditions be reflected in asset allocation?

The global economy appears to be in the early innings of recovery, while simultaneously staring down the limitations to growth in a pre-vaccine world.

We had a recession, now what about the recovery?

Last week’s GDP report showed that the U.S. economy contracted at a real, annualized rate of -32.9% in 2Q20.

How do we track the gradual recovery?

The U.S. economy contracted at its fastest pace on record in the second quarter, reflecting the nationwide lockdown and halt in economic activity that took place during the quarter.

Framing: How do investors interpret equity market returns over time?

Coming into 2020 – against a backdrop of steady and stable economic growth, along with a positive earnings outlook – many investors were worried about the market highs reached over the last few years.

Is the EU Recovery fund a game changer for investing in Europe?

This recovery plan is a small step for fiscal integration, but a giant leap for Europe and European assets.

Is the U.S. recession over?

The Business Cycle Dating Committee marked the peak month of the previous expansion in February 2020, officially marking an end to the longest expansion on record.

Is China’s recession really over?

China’s imposition of a strict quarantine in response to the COVID-19 pandemic plunged its economy into a deep contraction in the first quarter of 2020, -6.8% year-over-year, its first negative GDP print in over 40 years.

How disinflationary will prices be in the short term?

The dramatic increase in federal debt and the expansion of monetary policy has many investors wondering if a surge in inflation is on the horizon.

Should I be worried about a double-dip recession?

May and June saw economic activity improve relative to the April lows, and we expect that economic growth will be positive in the back half of the year.